Why What’s Happening in AI Is Not Unlike the 2016 Elections
Retail investors were taken for granted by VCs — just like certain elites took voters for granted in 2016. Now the backlash is building, and SpaceX is perfectly positioned to benefit.
I’ve been trading through this entire AI cycle, and the parallels to 2016 keep getting stronger.
For years the venture capital crowd ran the same playbook:
- Massive private rounds at insane valuations (Databricks at $134 billion after its latest big 2026 round, Anthropic pushing toward $380 billion, OpenAI in the $800 billion+ stratosphere).
- Kept companies private as long as possible to maximize marks and carry.
- Locked retail out completely.
- Then expected the public to show up and buy when they finally decided to IPO.
They took retail for granted — just like certain elites took voters for granted in 2016, assuming loyalty and that we had nowhere else to go. The result back then was a surprise shift. The same dynamic is playing out now.
Retail is tired of watching insiders mark up paper gains while we sit on the sidelines. We’re tired of the constant drumbeat of “AI will kill jobs.” Even highly skilled technologists are starting to resent it.
I recently spoke to a mathematician and top-tier engineer — someone at the absolute peak of his field. He was genuinely frustrated. His exact words:
“Why don’t they help farmers pick tomatoes or figure out how to cure cancer? Instead they want to kill jobs to benefit themselves.”
He added that so many farm workers toil in dangerous conditions every day, yet instead of automating that kind of hard, risky labor, we’re sitting here automating white-collar and creative jobs. That’s how a lot of people are thinking right now.
Elon Musk just dropped the ultimate mic on the “glass house on a hill” club.
Unlike the traditional VC elite who operate behind closed doors, Musk actually keeps a pulse on X and responds to regular people. He frames his work around bold, pro-humanity goals — making life multi-planetary, accelerating scientific discovery, understanding the universe — rather than pure disruption.
SpaceX (now merged with xAI) filed confidentially on April 1, 2026. Roadshow launches the week of June 8. A dedicated retail investor event on June 11 for ~1,500 people globally. Up to 30% of the shares earmarked for retail — triple the usual amount. Summer listing targeting $1.75T–$2T+ valuation (after the February 2026 merger valued the combined entity at $1.25T).
This is the anti-VC move. It feels inclusive. It feels optimistic. It directly addresses the resentment of being shut out of those fat private deals.
Even macro heavyweights like Ray Dalio have flagged AI as entering bubble territory, warning that the technology may endure but many companies racing to monetize it probably won’t. He has also highlighted rising polarization, declining trust in elites, and how narratives shift when one story becomes overextended and exclusionary.
The desperate attempts by some VCs to suddenly pivot to “AI for good” feel like damage control that’s too little, too late. When the delayed AI IPOs finally arrive (Databricks still has no S-1 filed as of mid-April 2026, most likely H2 2026 or later), the contrast with SpaceX’s accessible, hero-driven rollout could make their reception even colder. Retail may simply have moved on.
Buy now, figure out later.
SpaceX + xAI is a conglomerate of rockets, Starlink revenue, Starship ambitions, xAI/Grok synergies (including potential orbital compute), defense, and Musk ecosystem optionality. Most people won’t (and don’t need to) fully model every piece. The vision is big enough, the hero narrative is strong enough, and the retail access is real enough.
That’s classic late-cycle rotation psychology. When one hot narrative (AI) feels tired and exclusionary, money floods into the next one that feels fresh and inclusive.
Bottom line for retail traders:
Don’t be the exit liquidity for the VC playbook. The next accessible hot thing is here, and it’s structured to reward the people who’ve been shut out for years.
I’m playing this the disciplined way: trimming my higher-beta pure-play exposure (LUNR) gradually into strength while keeping my diversified thematic core (ARKX) to ride the wave. That way I capture upside if the rotation runs longer — which I think it will — without getting greedy.
The VCs had their turn behind the glass house. Now it’s retail’s.