Why Real-Time Prediction Fails Retail Traders (Plus: $RH and My Bull Case for $OXY)

Prashant Rao

It’s a rainy Sunday here in the Bay Area, and I wanted to sit down to address a few frequent questions from our users, give you a sneak peek at a major feature coming to retailtrader.ai, and talk about where the smart money is moving in the energy sector.

You can watch the full update video below, or read on for the breakdown.

Why We Don’t Do “Real-Time” Prediction

One of the most common questions I get is: “Why doesn’t retailtrader.ai offer real-time prediction?”

In my view, attempting real-time prediction as a retail trader is a fool’s game. It might work for institutions, but the playing field isn’t level.

  • The Slippage Problem: Institutions pay cents on the trade and have virtually no slippage. Retail traders pay in dollars and suffer from slippage.
  • High Frequency vs. High Probability: Competing on speed (going in and out every minute or hour) is a recipe for failure for the average trader.

At retailtrader.ai, we don’t try to beat the bots on speed. We focus on selective, high-probability trades. We want to find the setups that allow you to be successful without being glued to a screen every second of the trading day.

Coming Soon: Curated Trades

This leads me to a major feature update we’ve been building for the last six weeks: Curated Trades.

We have developed a new ranking engine that ingests all the signals our AI generates and ranks them by probability. It considers the setup, the signal quality, and various other metrics to filter out the noise.

Instead of sifting through hundreds of signals, this engine will present you with exactly 4 to 5 high-quality trades per day.

The goal is a “fire and forget” experience. You get the curated list, you place your trades, and you go about your day.

Important Pricing Update

This feature will be part of our Pro Plan, launching around the end of January. At that time, we will be moving out of Beta and adjusting our pricing.

Note: If you are subscribed to the current Beta plan before we launch Curated Trades, you will be automatically upgraded to the Pro Plan at your current rate. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, now is the time to join.

Market Analysis: $RH and $OXY

Moving on to the charts, let’s look at some wins and new positions.

Restoration Hardware ($RH)

A couple of weeks ago, I called $RH a “gold mine” when we were looking at an entry around $152. On Friday, it hit $197—exactly the price predicted by our model. While there might be some near-term resistance here, the gain has been massive for those who followed the signal.

The New Play: Occidental Petroleum ($OXY)

I am currently long on $OXY with a significant position. To me, this setup mirrors what we just saw with Restoration Hardware.

Interestingly, news broke on Saturday regarding Venezuela that caused oil stocks to jump—but if you looked at the market on Friday before the news, the energy sector was already flying.

This is a classic reminder: The market is always ahead of the news.

If you are waiting to read an article or watch CNBC to make your move, you are already behind. Someone always knows before the headlines drop. The price action on Friday told us everything we needed to know before the Venezuela news officially broke.

I’m expecting strong performance from $OXY and the energy sector as we head into the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading stocks involves risk. Please do your own due diligence.